The so-called credit crunch has seriously reduced the propensity and capacity of the commercial banking sector to lend, constraining business borrowing and ending the UK property boom, with a consequent downturn in consumer sentiment. Through the first half of 2008 global oil prices reached new record highs at regular intervals, playing into dramatically escalating energy and vehicle fuel costs, classic drivers of inflation. This has been reinforced by global food shortages and price rises, but US, UK and other central banks find themselves with limited scope to use interest rates to curb inflation. A weak US dollar and strong Euro have significant impacts on UK businesses trading with these regions.
Beyond the uncertainties of the short term economic picture, the progressive development of China and India as economic powers continues to shift the balance of the global economy. Resource and environmental considerations are also giving rise to serious doubts about the long term viability of current global industrial and economic practices and infrastructures.
On the horizon of the Scottish landscape lies the prospect of an independence referendum which has the potential to trigger the most fundamental political and economic changes the country has seen for over three centuries.
The prevailing and prospective economic climate and trading environment represent “interesting times” by any standards. They are challenging even for the largest of companies, which can support teams of specialists in scenario analysis, strategy development and corporate planning. Smaller businesses are generally less well equipped to understand and analyse the implications of the economic headlines, or to develop or pursue strategic responses.
The objective of the Forum event planned for 17th September 2008 is to create an opportunity for informed consideration and discussion of the issues outlined above, and perhaps to do a little educated crystal ball gazing. The intention is to analyse and comment on the current and possible future economic environments, specifically as they relate to and bear on the proprietors and managers of smaller Scottish companies.
It is recognised that the two-hour format of the event is unlikely to provide scope for a comprehensive treatment of all the issues outlined above, and also that it may not always be easy to draw out generic conclusions applicable across different business sectors and types. However, each of our speakers will endeavour to apply his own perspective and frame of reference to an individual overview and analysis lasting approximately twenty minutes, concentrating on topics on which he feels best equipped to comment. It is intended that the tone of the event should be practical and down-to-earth, and that the “take home messages” should emerge in terms that are as relevant as possible to small and medium sized Scottish businesses.
Alf Young
Professor Gabriel Talmain, MPhil, PhD - Daniel Jack Chair of Political Economy and Director of the Centre for Ecomomic and Financial Studies .
Gabriel joined the Department in September 2006. He previously held positions at the Universities of York and the State University of New York at Albany (USA), and visiting positions at the European Central Bank, Nuffield College, the Banco de Portugal, the University of British Columbia (Canada), the New Economic School (Russia), the Universidad Nova de Lisboã (Portugal) and Columbia Business School (USA). He is currently co-editor of the Bulletin of Economic Research. He holds degrees from Université Pierre & Marie Curie (Paris), the Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l' Administration Economique (Paris), Université Pantheon-La Sorbonne (Paris), and Columbia University (USA). He was Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of York from 2002-2006.